On his personal page, billionaire Bill Gates likens Covid-19 to an unprecedented battle. Vaccine good enough is the only way to save the world.
Bill Gates is one of the most vocal billionaires since the Covid-19 outbreak. He predicted a global pandemic many years ago, and also contributed to the development of anti-epidemic vaccines through the charity Bill & Melinda Gates.
Recently, on his personal website, Bill Gates continued to publish a very detailed article on the Covid-19 epidemic, his analysis based on scientific aspects, and his views on the future of the world after the epidemic. . He also called Covid-19 the “first modern pandemic”, when the situation changed day by day and its observers became very susceptible to information disorder.
When will the new epidemic peak?
Gates said that in the early stages of the epidemic, we saw an explosion of cases in China, followed by all of Asia, Europe and the US. The rate of cases increases in the past few months and things only get better as many countries change their behavior.
“If human behavior does not change, most people will already be infected,” Gates said. He said that exponential growth is a concept that many people have a hard time grasping: if 2% of the population is infected and every 8 days the number of cases doubles, then after 40 days most people will become infected.
According to the billionaire, in the summer many countries have maintained changing people’s habits will reduce the number of cases, and the decline will exponentially.
“The exponential reduction is even more elusive. Many people will be surprised to realize that in many places hospitals will go from overcrowding in April to empty in July. elusive, but inevitable considering the exponentially explosive nature, “said Bill Gates.
However, once life returns to normal, habits are re-activated, some places will continue to record cases, even increasing exponentially as before.
“The situation will be much more complex now, with many heterogeneous variables,” concludes Bill Gates.
Strong reaction to pandemic is necessary
Commenting on the strong reaction, changing habits of people before the epidemic, Bill Gates said that this is necessary.
“This change helps us avoid millions of deaths and overcrowding in many hospitals, which could cause many others to die for non-epidemic reasons,” he said.
Talking about the post-pandemic economy, Bill Gates said that the economy would suffer unprecedented damage. This comes not only from strong measures but also from changing consumption habits during an epidemic. Even when many governments have begun to relax restrictions, many individuals will still choose to wait rather than return to life before the epidemic immediately.
“It will take good communication for people to understand what the risks are, and be able to comfortably return to work or school. This will be a gradual process, some people will return to normal life. immediately and some choose to be slower, “Bill Gates predicted.
Big question about Covid-19 translation
In his article, Bill Gates also shared the 6 biggest questions about translation. He thinks the global effort has helped to increase our understanding of translation very quickly, and we will have even more knowledge in the next few months.
Among them, the most important question according to Bill Gates is whether the epidemic varies according to the weather or the season. He said that if we were not sure, we could be subjective when there were few infections in the summer, and trapping in the fall.
“Because the virus is still circulating in Australia and other countries in the southern hemisphere, where the weather is contrary to us, we can see that this virus is not as seasonal as seasonal flu,” Bill Gates said.
The remaining questions are related to the symptoms of illness, the likelihood of infection of those who have recovered from their illness, and what activities bring the highest risk of infection. Faced with these questions, Bill Gates acknowledged that there were questions that he “wished he knew the answer”.
“There are still many important things that we do not fully understand,” he said.
Five things need improvement to win a battle with the coronavirus
For the war against Covid-19 with a war, Bill Gates said that humanity needs innovation in five aspects to win the disease, the same way a series of technologies such as radar, improved torpedoes, and techniques. Decoding algorithm was born between World War II.
“Without progress in these areas, we cannot return to normal life or prevent viruses,” the billionaire stressed.
Areas where Bill Gates thinks rapid progress is needed include:
Treatment: Gates acknowledges that many treatments will fail, but he is optimistic that there will certainly be successful methods of reducing the burden of the disease. He thinks a 95% effective treatment is needed so that people feel safe when gathering in large numbers.
He mentioned a number of potential methods such as plasma use, antibodies, antiviral drugs and Hydroxychloroquine. However, he still thinks that it is possible that all of these methods could not reach 95%.
“If the best treatment reduces deaths to less than 95%, then we still need the vaccine to return to normal,” Gates admitted.
Vaccine: According to Gates, an effective vaccine with translation is “the only way to bring the world back to pre-Covid-19”. However, he warned that we still have to wait several months before getting the vaccine, because the process of testing and ensuring safety is very important. He said that the waiting time could be from 9 months to nearly 2 years, though it will be around 18 months.
“The goal is to select one or two of the best vaccines and vaccinate the whole world, which means 7 billion shots if it is a one-time injection, or 14 billion if it’s a double-shot vaccine. The whole world is in great need. vaccine, so production scale will be unprecedentedly large and may require many companies, “said Bill Gates.
Testing: According to him, the US needs to consider the Covid-19 test as the first priority, it should shorten the time to return the results to 1 day. All medical personnel should be tested, while those without symptoms may be tested after those with symptoms.
“We want to test it on a large scale so that when we realize hot spots, we can intervene and change policies before the number of cases increases,” he said.
Bill Gates also said that it should create conditions for people to test at home, whether it is a rapid test or the type of test that needs to be sent to the lab.
Contact tracing: In addition to testing, Bill Gates suggests that it should be combined with contact traceability so that people at risk know it quickly, and are tested or isolated.
He said that many countries will learn from the German traceability model, that is, take positive case information and use the database to confirm the information.
“If the majority of people volunteer to download this kind of application, it might work,” said Bill Gates. However, he also thinks that the tracing application will be limited because patients do not need direct contact, but only accidentally leaving the virus on surfaces can also spread the disease to others.
Opening the economy: Gates believes that most developed countries will enter phase 2 of the pandemic in the next 2 months, which can be considered as a “normal” situation. The locations, offices and restaurants will be more crowded but not as crowded as before, and people will return to work but not spend as much money as before.
“It can be said that life is still abnormal, but not unusual as phase 1,” he described.
Bill Gates said things will return to life slowly to control the number of cases. Countries will need to learn from each other, especially from those that are capable of multiple and accurate tests. According to Gates, leaders will have to be very careful to find a balance when the economy reopens.
“Covid-19 is like a world war, except this time the human race is on the same line. This first modern pandemic will define our time. No one will ever forget it.”, Bill Gates concluded.
Source: Zing News